Thursday, May 14, 2009

Sovereign CDS spreads and the dollar

Sovereign CDS spreads in G10 countries have moved with the dollar. Once the dollar started to decline CDS spreads moved almost in tandem. This may be a a sign tat the global crisis is thought to be over. US stocks started to rally when the CDS spreads started to come down. The lower perception concerning risk started to cause money to move out of the dollar safe haven causing the dollar the decline.

A cycle of positive behavior is hitting all of the markets. Some economic data is better. Equities around the globe are higher. Sovereign CDS spreads have started to decline. The dollar has fallen with the increase risk appetite.

So now we have to look for signs of a reverse.

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