Friday, October 16, 2009

The link between employment, recession, and Fed tightening is not clear


We would like to see improvement in employment but it is highly variable how long it will take before we see job creation. It could start to happen at the end of the year or the lag could be much longer. There will be an even grater delay in the tightening of Fed policy.

From macroblog.typepad.com: Economic troughs, changes in the employment rate and Fed policy by John Robertson

Historical lag between end of recession, unemployment rate peak, and beginning of funds rate tightening cycle

End of Recession Unempl.
rate peak
Beginning of funds rate tightening cycle Months from end of recession to unempl. peak Months from unempl. peak to beginning of funds rate tightening cycle
Nov 2001 Jun 2003 Jul 2004 19 13
Mar 1991 Jun 1992 Feb 1994 15 20
Nov 1982 Dec 1982 Jun 1983 1 6
(Jul 1980)
Mar 1975 May 1975 May 1976 2 12
Nov 1970 Aug 1971* Mar 1972 9 7
*Following the 1970 recession, the unemployment rate was 6.1 in December 1970 and again in August 1971. If the December 1970 peak is used, months from end of recession to unemployment peak is 1 and months from unemployment peak to beginning of funds rate tightening cycle is 15.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Federal Reserve Board

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