Sunday, April 29, 2012

A nearly reasonable world and market uncertainty

The real trouble with the world of our is not that it is unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality, yet it is a trap for logicians, It looks a little more mathematical and regular than it is, its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden, its wildness lies in wait. 

G K Chesterton

This may be one of the best quotes on uncertainty. I found it in Dance with Chance. For the modeler, the problem is that there is not enough certainty in model structure and explanation. For the discretionary trader, story-telling just does not seem to fit the facts for any given event.

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