Monday, February 18, 2013

The global central bank put or tail management

In the 1990's and early 2000's the talk in the US was centered on the Greenspan put. If there was a fall in equities, the Fed would come to the rescue and solve the problem by lowering interests rates. It seems like the put strategies has been taken up by other central banks. There is a form of Fed hegemony whereby others want to follow what is believed to be successful policies.

Unfortunately, the Greenspan put may have been a good reason for the housing bubble. Central banks now want to drive asset prices higher in order to protect or enhance wealth. We are following the same strategies. If asset prices fall, the central banks will come to the rescue with a new liquidity plan. Forget about inflation, the central bank put is the dominant strategy. See the BOJ and the Nikkei link. The same with the ECB and Eurostoxx, and the BOE and FTSE. 

You could call this tail risk management if we did not want to be crass about a put strategy. 

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