Sunday, April 21, 2013

Heath brothers and solving decision problems

The Hearth brothers have written a new book called Decisions: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. The Heaths have written a number of interesting and popular books on decisions and choices and this is their latest attempt to provide advice on how to make any decision less difficult. They state that there are four reasons fro why bad decision are made:

Narrow framing - limiting the options to consider
Confirmation bias - looking for evidence that supports our point of view
Short-term emotions which fade - letting our emotions drive our decisions
Overconfidence - assuming we have the answers to any question

These problems have been discussed by many other authors and are well-know to almost anyone who  studies decision theory. The Heath brothers try to solve the problems though a useful set of hints through what they call the WRAP method. 

Widen Options
Reality tests assumptions
Attain distance before deciding 
Prepare to be wrong 

There is not a lot new here but I think I can get used to employing the WRAP method as a simple devise to help with any decision. Have I WRAPped it up? Or as said in filming, "It's a WRAP!"

This could a simple way of looking at complex finance problems.

No comments: