Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Fade the dollar - there are headwinds


The dollar has declined from highs in early July. The dollar decline occurred even with the discussion of tapering by the Fed. There was a small rally at the end of August before a further continuation of the downtrend. With no tapering and renewed comments by the Fed that they have to "forcefully" provide stimulus, there are new headwinds against any dollar rise. 

For the DXY index, the dollar decline is also about the ascent of the EUR. The combination of a better EU growth and concerns about a US recovery provide a mix which is not dollar friendly.The current stability of the yen provides contrast  to the dollar rally versus yen earlier in the year. There is no reason not to see year lows before December end. 

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