Sunday, January 26, 2014

Fragile five and other EM problems

We seem like we enjoy having different names for cluster of countries. This all started with the naming of the BRIC's and have now moved the the latest cluster called the 'fragile five", Brazil, India, Indonesia,Turkey, and South Africa. All have seen significant currency declines, poor current account finances,  stock market declines, and subpar growth. This was supposed to be the future of the global economy. Now the fragile five are market leaders in a global decline. We already know that we are not going to get the growth leadership expected from the BRIC's. 

There has been significant talk that the crisis with the Fragile Five and EM in general is the result of the taper from the Fed but there is little information to suggest that the taper is the real cause of the EM sell-off. Money velocity is still low. There is no tightness. It is more likely that the higher capital standards for banks is the driver. Banks need to raise capital and seem to want  to keep lending local. This is not a taper problem.

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