Monday, July 7, 2014

"Left Brain Right Stuff" - a different take on behavior biases


This book is a nice counter to all of the negative talk about behavioral biases and poor decision-making. The premise of this work is very simple. Decision-makers need to use their left brain, the analytical side to properly structure the decisions that have to be made. However, to be an effective decision-maker and manager, you need not have to use your right brain but the right stuff, the confidence to take action and make a decision.

There has been so much discussion about such issues as overconfidence biases and other problems with making effective decisions that manager can be paralyzed. Rozenzweig makes the excellent point that some decisions cannot be controlled by the manager while other decisions can be and this is where the right stuff is needed. Confidence, in fact over confidence, is needed to be an effective manager and control decision-making. Think of the great golfers and athletes that need confidence to be effective. think of decision that are highly uncertain. Someone has to make a decision. In these cases, confidence is a requirement. In fact, some of the biases may just be effective ways of marking decisions under uncertainty.

Think about money management. Some are great researchers but cannot make a decision. The best traders are those that combine decision framing with the confidence to take action. There is often limited information and a high degree of uncertainty. Confidence with analytics skills is necessary to make and size a trading decision. In these cases, the decision maker needs the right stuff along with framing skills. This is alternative view does not solve all issues of behavioral biases but is worth thinking about.

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